🔴 Recession Crisis Indicators Explored (w/ Raoul Pal)

Posted By on August 15, 2019


I Talked to the brightest minds in the investment industry To find out the odds of recession and to determine how investors ought to position as a result. I Explained why I was asking the question in the first place and a piece called is recession coming Let’s pick it up where I’m taking a close Look at a curry, which is a weekly data series that I use to determine the economic strength of the business cycle so you see the chart here of Accrete with quickly GDP and you can see how well correlated it is It’s indicating that we’ve got some weakness to come. Ok So that’s the first interesting point Then I’d like to put the ikura against a number of other indicators that may be forward-looking and this is where it gets interesting I’m going to show you a whole series of charts now for you to look at So this chart is the cash freight shipments index You can see how dramatically freight shipments have fallen and how much they’re suggesting that the equity could fall from here and therefore the GDP as well Car loadings a similar way of looking at transportation. It’s collapsing capsule goods orders These are the big-ticket items the things that a lot of times you use Financing for or are involved in the global supply chains you can see how they are rolling over as well and Following Acree lower if you believe in this supply chain story and it seems to be bearing itself out in the press Almost daily Then you’ve got to imagine the capital goods orders are gonna come lower but households are also struggling with the with the rates So you’ve seen that and how much car sales have fallen so calf sales have languished and they’re expected to go further Clothing sales have collapsed in recent months as well, which has been an extraordinary move and restaurant sales as well have been extremely weak so your son to see not only is shipping and Moving Goods around week, but you’re also seeing a weakness in The consumer and a weakness in business expenditure another great global indicator. I’ve looked at is semiconductor sales semiconductor sales are extraordinarily weak right now and they too are suggesting the global business cycle has a lot further to fall back in the US we Also got the housing cycle it looks like that the The case-shiller house index is starting to weaken significantly And is now at the weakest level since before the previous recession And we also have weakness in house prices overall and construction so I’m concerned that all Parts of the economy are showing evidence of weakness And I know many people say well unemployment’s not unemployment strong Unemployment interestingly enough is the most lagging of all and indicators and just remember that every time the Fed cut rates and unemployment Is below 4% We went to a recession almost immediately afterwards They’re all lagging So don’t get trapped in the in the unemployment look at the forward-looking indicators and they’re looking problematic So that’s what I found in the u.s Then I took a look at the global data and found even more signs for concern particularly around Europe and China That’s how I determined that based on the data The whole world looks to be rolling over at once now some of you might be thinking So what it’s about time had a mild slowdown, but there are two major issues here debt and demographics It could lead to a massive adverse event that I refer to as the doom loop and it’s dramatic But here’s my summary of the chain of events that we could see phase one the business cycle weakens credit begins to widen corporate cash flow worsens our tad and shares fall and volatility increases I think that’s where we’ve got to now I think phase one we accomplished and it started really in about October Phase two the business cycle weakens again credit widens more cash flow gets worse as do profits tax receipts fall and state pension funds Stop buying debt big triple B stocks fall and bonds fall even more sharply equities fall hard So I think this is the next phase and I think it’s coming after the summer. We’ll wait and see my forward-looking indicators suggest that the Europe has a sessi up cycle right now. There’s a bit of stabilization of data I have a feeling that if I’m right about the debt ceiling or the dollar breaks higher Then I think we’re going to start to see Phase two come in when we start seeing phase two We know where this is going because then the story becomes very clear face one was the alarm bells face – they strap yourselves in Okay, let’s go into Phase three. This is when things get ugly the baby boomers start to panic to get out of equities permanently There’s downgrades of triple beats junk The EU banks can’t take the funding stress and the ECB and the government step in credit spreads explode credit seizes up entire lists pension Funds are forced sellers on downgrades equities going to tailspin. There are no natural buyers credit widens dramatically offered only no bids junk bond market Overwhelmed pension funds get to trouble defaulting on obligations big famous companies are being forced towards bankruptcy Unnecessarily, that’s the really ugly phase and that’s the one where I Think many of us have got a sense that there was an endgame That’s at the end of all of this If there is one it lies in the heart of that but that we get there or not It’s gonna be a function of what the Fed does and what the central banks do and how they deal with this And there’s many outcomes for that and it is not going to be a straight battle But all I do know is these things tend to accelerate much faster So now that we know just how much rides on the recession question. Let’s try and get some answers Straight off I talk to Laxman Atta Shan, who is the co-founder of ecru? He was really helpful in helping me interpret exactly What the date was saying the way I would sum that up visa vie like is there a recession? somewhere on the horizon is that We’re slow walking Toward a cyclical window of vulnerability now many people think Recession is the result of some shock. You know, somebody did something wrong or something happened that nobody could have predicted and that’s why There was this recession some negative shock And that’s not how recessions are made. We’ve been studying this for longer than I care to admit and the way our basic the crux of our finding is that There’s an endogenous cycle which is being tracked by good cycle indicators including leading indicators, which can Tell you if you’re in a downturn or an upturn now We’re in a downturn and we’re looking at the forward and leading indicators to see how that downturn is likely to progress if we begin to see a window of vulnerability opening up which would mean that our indicators are are Falling in a in a much more pronounced pervasive and persistent way than they are currently then virtually any negative shock any of the things that have occurred over the last half a year can become a Recessionary shock when I talk to Teddy ballet. He echoed that point about a window Vulnerability do you think the u.s. Goes into recession? It’s a tough call given the information we have if it does happen it would happen from now to June next year There’s never been a higher probability this cycle for the u.s. To go into recession because one we’ve had a tightening cycle 2015-16 we never had a tightening cycle in the US. It was just a trying to drag now We have a tightening cycle and a china drag that’s really pulling down the data and we have not seen it pick up I understand trade tariffs And now you have the trade coming in perhaps this window Vulnerability idea also helps us make sense of some of the recent Central Bank policies we’ve seen in fact according to Christopher Lee Ari the Fed and the rest of the world central banks are doing Anything they can to forestall a recession in this tender moment We are going into that downturn with official rights In low twos two major central banks with negative area interest rates 14 trillion of balance sheet So basically the ability of the central banks to answer the way they did it in 2008 is very limited. The problem is the control for the bursts because they don’t have the meaningful tool to address the the consequence of a massive downtown So they will need to be very creative and that thing that this is the message we have this year I think they have no illusion about their ability to kick-start the economy I think they have no illusion about their ability to boost real inflation So these mandates are quite an illusion. So they are focusing on what they can do, which is Keeping their financial conditions as loose as possible and because a Lyari believes that markets are in a massive bubble The stakes are especially high and as a result central banks could pursue increasingly extreme Sim have policies and since these policies may work in the short-term Le re actually believes that a recession is not particularly likely right now So what’s an investor to do well for Olli re it’s pretty simple. I never been as bullish as In the past on God did I was breached when we met in March and God was 21300 It I still believe that the old yields will go further lower And and I still believe that because you can have so much cash injection plus a currency war between all the central bank’s trying to To put cash on their respective currencies. So you have a risk of debasement of the currencies. I think the gold is a God desire Has got to go to mix in front of it So Christophe thinks that central banks would destroy the value of their currencies allowing the price of gold to rise It’s a pretty compelling case and even though he and I might disagree about the economic outlook we do agree That gold is a good way to play the central banks next move, Greg Weldon is also in on the gold trade, but he’s looking at it more from a technical perspective and that was really interesting So the long-term picture is then here’s your correction. You had ABC Fibonacci and you’re rolling back to the upside Well, this is basically 1 2 3 4 5 typical Elliott wave Dynamic where wave 5 has just been ignited, you know, we talked about ignition and here we have liftoff in gold So how do we want to play that well, if you’re not long any retracement down into this? I mean you guys you get below 1300 you get like a 1295 print it’s a gift from the gold gods. You got to back the truck up in that case I don’t know that you’re gonna see that. I don’t think you’ll get much below 12 65 to 1260 if you get a dip, I mean because this is a longer-term breakdown breakout I mean so you know 13 45 would be kind of a last guest on the downside and then frankly I mean you get below 1290 then we’re wrong and then 1266 at risk, but they really don’t see that happening Not when I see stuff like this and here we get to the trade final. Yes right to the trade All right, the GDX gold mining ETF really like this year. I mean it is now breaking out. Look at this pattern I mean, it makes new lows. This law was so unconfirmed by any technical, you know, a momentum indicator You want to throw in you got the breakout you got the retest of the trendline that was violated I love this pattern 30 years in doing this I’m telling us one of the most reliable patterns when you get a Long-term trend breakout and it kind of seems like it’s running out of steam and it comes down He might even make a lower low, but it holds above the violated trendline That’s huge that retest on the backside particularly when it lays out right in the zone between the 50 and 61% Fibonacci retracements in the meantime you get back over the two year moving average Which is now accelerating to the upside and making a new high in line with price a very bullish dynamic and this is long-term Stuff man here look at the 52-week and the and the two year moving averages crossing over here as well Very bullish the GDX would be the trade here You know in the in terms of what trade we’re putting on here one of them GDX would be a would be an option and frankly you just plow right in here because the risk reward is still quite favorable so playing a slowing economy and increasingly accommodative Central Bank policies by buying gold could certainly be an option but I think there might also be a simpler way in this recession watch coverage We had a the great pleasure of hearing John Burbank who to me is one of the greatest living hedge fund managers He discussed his highest conviction trade with my good friend Alex Gurevich another well known hedge fund manager Burbank also thinks of the Federal cut rates much faster much further than the market currently expects He thinks they go to zero But he prefers to express that thesis by using Eurodollar futures Since those track the short-term interest rates on US dollars They’re highly influenced by what the Fed does what I like about betting on With euro dollars and betting on fed futures is that we’re we’re betting on where the actual policy rate is gonna settle It’s really it’s like betting on the earnings like nailing the earnings of an equity But but not having to worry about the multiple most specifically Burbank is talking about buying options on Eurodollar futures And he’s not shying away from this trade either I’m talking about like getting a you know, a TEDx return in a scenario. And so in a way I’m like bringing like a risk seeking mindset to this trade for a lot of people who don’t you know aren’t used to having this maybe optionality or Aren’t seeking this kind of risk. I now believe I now can understand why Druckenmiller could have made so much money, you know in these times right a risk seeking mentality in an incredibly liquid Leverageable, you know area I get it. I get that now someone else looking for massive return is Dan’s happy arrow Dan is known as one of the sharpest minds on gold and macro in general But recently he’s been increasingly interested in what some called digital gold Bitcoin is a lot of things So what it is is it’s an invention And I think it should be referred to as an invention rather than all the other things It’s a-you know what it really is is it’s a truth machine. It’s a way in a way to eradicate all fraud or You know lined by human beings. I mean the whole, you know bigger concept of certainty of confirmation of validity of security That’s what you’re buying a system that you know now is ten years old has a tremendous track record And I’m thinking well, what’s that worth what I all Stan his own question here’s how he responded starting first with the market cap of Bitcoin and then discussing other people’s Predictions of the price per coin it’s now two hundred billion dollars a market cap, but that’s kind of small you Know it’s kind of small If you not even if you if you just see what’s been built, like, you know It would cost more than two hundred billion dollars to build that right, so you can start to think that you know within ten years the Winklevoss a Million dollars or Draper’s five million two hundred fifty thousand in the next few years. It’s not unreasonable And so what is the bet the bet is by and to do nothing else? That’s it I’m also interested in Bitcoin because I think it could be a way to play this Doom loop thesis of mine from the bullish angle and pass that thesis by The way comes back to China China Has been the growth engine of the world and that engine appears to be sputtering Russell Clark has noticed that as well and in this conversation with Roger hearse He outlines of specific chain of events that basically ends in economic disaster and it’s playing out in front of our eyes The problem is is that when you combine those three things, I’ve just told you low tech worthy huge derivative notional Z’ that don’t match up to that liquidy and then the Delta and markets been by trend followers When you combine all these different pictures together? What that suggests to me? Together with issues in China he saying you get a gap in the market base, so one day we all got home on Friday and Over the weekend the Chinese go Hey, that’s it may as well, we’re gonna rip the band-aid off and we come in and the remin be is it nine right and Equities then open up down fifteen on a gap Right and then of course involve something goes Down at for you, something like that The problem then is that this huge amount of derivatives that somebody get knocked in and they’re looking for the query and one thing I’ve also seen is that the The high-frequency traders that provide most of the query they pull their bids on balls bikes Because they’re not programmed to think They’re just programmed to react to market prices. So when they see vulgar low bids get tighter when vole goes high they pull a bit and this has been the Problem the problem of that view is that well, that means as you go one way to pull all the CTA’s long and Then you go back the other way in it gap So to put you on the spot sort of ran it off your your view and part of your view. Is that you? They’re an indie will move through seven. They will do something and this will trigger a whole series of chain reactions Is that gonna happen before the end of this year when you look at? The sort of dichotomy between like I said macro indicators and we’ll head quiz Ettore The macro indicators are saying yeah. Yeah get position four right now Josh wolf one of the smartest most successful folks in the venture capital space is looking at liquidity as well He believes that we may all learn exactly at the wrong time. Just how little liquidity there really is You have the illusion of liquidity because you you have daily trading and and and ETFs and you know They’re marked on a daily basis But the underlyings suddenly might be a liquid and so I think that there’s a real risk of permanent impairment Which is the true measure of risk of principal so if that happens and retirees start saying wait a second You know what? Let me go to cash Let me get out of this bond funds that I thought was safe. You know that creates problem Well, they also might need to sell out of equity funds but to me It’s not enough just to look at the macro You need to get your hands dirty and really investigate some of the specific sectors that matter the most That’s why I spoke to five sector experts so I could see how they’re making sense of the economy through their own specializations I traveled around the world via Skype and found about metals chemicals shipping autos and real estate so for sure that the bigger story is trade and trade tariffs and that was a unexpected development that many Particularly industrial customers hadn’t come to appreciate I think the seriousness with which the Trump administration was approaching that topic they had been used to the breakdown of barriers not a position of barriers and when the industrial world all of a sudden had a content within particular tariffs in China and having to deal with tariffs on Chinese fabrication for products and Chinese exported products That was an unexpected change in supply chains And I think people weren’t prepared Or had forecasted to deal with it all so that that to me has been the biggest story When I talk to business customers and people that move goods around the world for various final fabrication into media processing a different place that to them was a major reward orienting of the supply chain They become used to where China is a major importer and exporter of a number of commodity products and Commedia products from electronics to steel products to auto parts and other things that touch China is in numerous amounts of goods that all of a sudden became quickly on economic then that wasn’t forecast It’s I think we’re do I think we’re due for a period where we do see? business activity contract and we do see a bit of a pullback and I think we’re Overdue for that a number of a number of industrial leaders, you know leaders CEOs of the companies involved in our industry They recognize that what we’ve seen since December 2017 is a definite slowdown in the chemicals industry and this matters because we are the third largest industry in the world after energy and agriculture and We go into all parts in the economy, and we’re in that position in the value chain Where we we do get six to nine months lead time on what’s happening elsewhere So yeah, just that sort of start to focus down a bit You know, one of the wake-up calls for me was October last year where there’s a big industry conference in Europe And I walked into my first meeting with some said senior people from a major company Said how’s business my always my first question. Oh, we were down 40% the second half of September Wow I said, oh, you know and it went through three days We had twenty odd meetings with with companies you know judge not just European companies but global companies and one CEO joked halfway through I said, oh No, actually we’re doing better than everyone else. He said we’re only down 20% No, no, I don’t want to sort of say. Oh, yeah, this is a collapse what I’m saying? Is that marked the moment at which we transitioned from a stable slightly rising? picture towards a real significant downturn and so we come back we’ve now got the may data out from our friends at the American Chemistry Council and Normally May would show quite a sizable Improvement because it’s right in the middle of the second quarter so car sales should be going well construction should be going well all of these things and the weather has been good was good in May, but in fact They only bounced by 0.2 said, you know that’s less than half of what we normally get in May. So what we’re seeing is a deteriorating picture in the industry in almost all of the of the major markets and The bounces this is something I look at a bit The bounces are weaker than they used to be and they’re getting weaker all the time So the outlook for the second half of the year isn’t terribly good I don’t think we’re virtually on the point of saying we are either in a recession or About to enter a global recession. So starting at the global level Total global vehicle sales are down about 6.4 percent This is kind of morph into like a every market Phenomenon and it’s very concerning. It’s it’s starting to have ripple effects on not just the the auto makers but the suppliers and I think the phrase you use often is there’s quite a bit of knock-on effects that are yet to be seen But some are starting to filter through the best way to describe it is we have not begun the healing process So so you’re saying your short-term indicators? Down you’ll meet medium-term indicators are indicating an acceleration of weakness And your long-term indicator is not showing any pick up Into the extended future yet. Is that right? That’s correct so this is quite a large bust coming in the hell in the car market if You’ll if we’re not seeing it doesn’t looks more than a short-term cycle here. It’s not an inventory cycle We’ve actually got a bigger slump Absolutely, and that’s it That’s a great great point because we can go through ups and downs where inventories get out of hand Production gets cut all of a sudden day. Supply looks good, you know in three or four months later. We’re back in the same boat That’s just how it happens as as you as the market continues to weaken over time because of headwinds like time to equity global macro, I’m seeing similar phase you are the World trade seems to be slowing on the demand side. We’re gonna have to see what happens You know, the trade war obviously has local drivers and shipping is in this model thing people Love to look at the Baltic Freight index, but there’s many different Categories of shipping sub sectors, so mainly it’s three of the containers. Yeah demand For Chinese containers going into Los Angeles is slowing but when you look at other things like Baltic Freight or In a crude oil anytime you have trade wars and trade disruption It means that the number of vessels on the water have to go further in the number of ton miles Increases take the situation with Venezuela right now. It used to be that America imported a lot of Venezuelan crude That’s now all becomes circuitous where Venezuelan crude goes somewhere else and then eventually usually comes to America and Venezuela Which is importing refined product from America is not directly or importing it. It’s going somewhere else first So what that’s doing is its increasing the shipping routes and it’s increasing the number of ton miles. That’s actually bullying Prices even though the global economy and world trade and especially indexes you look at my cash shipping address are showing serious Declines it hasn’t yet hit shipping And if anything I think shipping is doing quite well right now for example There are some serious red flags out there that if I could just briefly run through them I think they’re important for example, uh Home sales have been weakening in even the hottest major metros for a year or so Some of them most of them are down double digits now slowly home sales by itself isn’t necessarily a problem, but Combined with that you have the rising inventory of homes for sale two months ago it was in the house market in the country Silicon Valley, San Jose was Double the inventory of a year ago and it’s still up substantially the other hottest markets Seattle Denver, LA are all showing a pretty substantial rises in Inventories you put those two together and that it suggests to me that we’re going to see and we have been seeing increases in Reductions at home prices finally at the end of these two weeks of programming I talked to one of the most respected people in the entire investment research landscape Carol Sokolov when I sat down with Carol in upstate New York, he kept bringing in historical examples to make sense of the present situation It’s an interesting approach and one that has really yield him incredible results throughout his career Here’s how he responded when I asked in the recession question well The great question of our time is whether this is a mid cycle correction like in 95 or 98 With the Fed easing into a recovery, but whether it’s recession like 1989 2001 or 2007 And I have a very hard time seeing if this is 95, but I can go into why I don’t think it is I’m totally agnostic. I’ll let the market decide for me, but all the evidence on economic data and above all confidence and trust Because this is really a confidence and trust issue. How are you gonna put confidence and trust back into the picture? You’ve done a savage cutting on that I cannot believe it’s possible for trust to be restored in the next year and a half just impossible So how do you rebuild trust and it takes years decades? It’s extremely significant So your sense is that we may be the cyclical turning point But we’re actually honest this is a secular turning point as well in many respects. It could be if the u.s. Goes for protectionism and The rest of the world were to follow it definitely would be a secular turning point if the u.s Goes for protectionism and the rest of the world doesn’t follow He won’t be quite as bad but then you have the whole cycle of wealth distribution coming and how’s that gonna play out and if Trump doesn’t get reelected what then happens to all of the deregulation and tax code all the things he did to get the stock market up will Buybacks be how Lord I mean there’s so many things that could happen There’s a significant watershed event But the market isn’t paying any attention to but he’s a significant risk And then of course you have what I call a burden of the debt, which might be the reason why it’s so hard to get Growth and the last time we tried to do economic growth With more debt solving the problem of debt with more debt was in the 1920s. We know how that ended up So we got two hundred and fifty trillion and Counting of global debt which is more than three times global GDP, we’ve added debt at the rate of Depending on the country one and a half or two times more than nominal GDP in the last ten years so we’ve leveraged up this system and maybe the burden of debt is is too great to grow and Even though interest rates are low. A lot of the debt was used for unproductive purposes So it’s not generating any cash flow and then of course you have demographics which into recently the u.s was a hopeful spot and now is almost as bad as others with the population growing at the lowest rate in 80 years this last year, so if in fact It is beginning recession. It has immense implications Which is why glad you asked me the question and the first is? Will the recession be over by the election and the second is how will this impact? China u.s. Trade relations Is very very significant. So my hunch is that President Trump wants to run on tariffs and wants to run on Protectionism and taking on China and even if the economy were strong he would do that But if you kind of mean it’s a week or a recession He will double down you still he’s not gonna say I’m in favor of free trade and take all the towers everywhere It’s not gonna happen. That’s our song getting away Yeah, so that means protectionism and then the next question is what does the rest of the world do? did they put up barriers and That’s probably the most important question of all because that’s what happened in the 30s where everybody went Protectionist and beggar-thy-neighbor and of course you got some very large and export economies China South Korea, Japan Germany Very important to the global economy. I fear we’re on a slippery slope here and when you open up the protectionist mind shoot You can’t bring it back and there’s a guy named Jude Winooski. He’s since passed away, but he was one of the original supply siders along with art laughter and Robert Mundell and Bob Bartley editor of The Wall Street Journal and he gave me his book and wrote it to me Takuro a Disciple of the supply-side Revolution 1978 and he wrote the book because he wanted to disprove that it was free-market economics to cost the 29 crash and the Great Depression and he plotted how The smoot-hawley Tariff made its way through Congress in the fall of 29 and how the stock market reacted to each Support or against and finally when it became clear who’s gonna happen. That’s when the crash happened or happened for real So he makes a very good point but having seen that and knowing that history repeats I had this gnawing anxiety That we could be going down that same slippery slope here So kills head is in a similar place to mine, but what I find so fascinating Is he’s always trying to see sense in the larger secular turns that are happening in the background of these economic cycles We need to add into this my view that were entering the cycle of from wealth distribution from wealth accumulation to wealth distribution, right and It’s his oldest history. He’s been going on for thousands of thousands of years. Julius caesar cancelled death, for example And there was a debt Jubilee in the UK, I think in the 18th century and probably in the history of man There’s never been a period of greater wealth accumulation. I don’t see it as socialism per se It’s just a cycle and if we put that into the picture here this means that corporate profits are going to be hurt because Labor is going to take a greater. Share of the pie has been going down for 40 years So that would obviously impact the stock market. I happen to like gold a lot It’s been out of favor. It’s not understood at all people come to it Very late in the cycle and they ride it up and they think they understand it when they really don’t it’s very sophisticated in Tremont with much different values and trading parameters than people are experienced and I see it as the best barometer of deflation and Reflation. I’m not using the word inflation Reflation now at the end of the last commodity cycle or it should say that were in the 1970s gold and all the commodities went up because the dollar was very weakly making it that kind of a period so I think right now Gold is very attractive. Obviously, the mining shears are attractive I certainly think having the quiddity is very attractive people think that there’s so much liquidity in so much cash And I’ve seen so many times when there’s too much of something It becomes not enough now when you hear different people use completely different Frameworks to make similar points, you know, you might be onto something so there you heard from Carol about political upheaval about issues for equities about the troubles with liquidity and About the case for gold and I think he’s bang on so where does that leave us? Well, obviously, we’ll see how it all shakes out But there’s one point I don’t want you to miss which I made in my last video for this series You might reach different conclusions. And that’s fine again. I’ve always said there are no certainties in this world All I’m trying to do is corral all the information you could possibly need to make an informed opinion Because being ahead of the crowd Taking the opposite opinion to what you think the market’s thinking is where you make the real money you can jump on the trend later But first this the turning point that matters and I think the turning point or the returning point With the bond market yields falling is upon us again And I think the opportunity to make a lot of money is coming up rapidly So once a thank you for coming along with me on this journey if nothing else I hope it’s helped you understand why this recession question is so desperately important for real vision I’m rel pal You You

Posted by Lewis Heart

This article has 100 comments

  1. We're bringing all of these Recession Watch conversations to YouTube later this week so get ready. This is an important moment for us all to explore together.

    Reply
  2. Bitcoin the best investment of one humans life time, and to think it has trillions of dollars worth of growth ahead of it is just amazing and once u realize this 10k bitcoin is cheap

    Reply
  3. The people of England in working class terms have never got out of 2008 recession that killed the dreams of of the poor , and you wonder why men are committing suicide to escape the stress of life and women

    Reply
  4. This parade of clowns keep calling the American tariffs on Chinese imports "protectionism" while ignoring the fact that China's trade rules completely bar most foreign ( not only America but every other country) imports.

    To say nothing of all the Chinese government -directed and -sponsored cheating, espionage, hacking and outright theft directed solely at all foreign industry.

    You're not doing a very good job hiding the fact that you have significant holdings inside mainland China, or some relationship with China that benefits you dramatically.

    EDIT: Ah, I posted too soon. We now get to "Trump is Hitler" analogies without directly calling him such. Tres sophisticated…

    Reply
  5. The central banks, through quantitative easing and zero interest rates, simply postponed the reckoning due to us in 2008. Now the bubble is that much bigger, and when it deflates it will cause intense pain. The past few years have been like a game of musical chairs where the music has kept going while the band leader has been gradually taking out chairs and the dancers are drunk and oblivious. The music will stop soon, and the diving for chairs will begin. This could get very ugly.

    Reply
  6. Argentine Stock market just crashed by half its value , Chinese credit market freezing up , Globl manufacturing recession…. this recovery is done

    Reply
  7. Very good work. Best breakdown yet I’ve found that corresponds with the series of events as I too expect them to play out. You just got a new subscriber

    Reply
  8. the entire world can break for what i care..

    unfortunately i think the next system we are going to get is going to be even worse than what we have right now

    i think we are going to get a dictatorship next and wealth wont come back for many years after the next crash..

    what angers me the most are all the lies that were told me during my childhood and my teen years
    go to school, get good grades, so you can get a well paid job

    i really see it working out anymore.. i wish i would have spend more time having fun, than wasting it on school

    Reply
  9. One of the best videos I have seen on the current situation.
    The older gentleman at the end (Carol?) was spot on. If Bernie or Waren or one of the other dems become president, it will be very ugly very quick. He had so many good points I had to listen to what he said four times.

    Reply
  10. I hope in five years time after the fallout of what is to come cleans you revisit the same people and ask them "so do you think you were right" cheers mate!

    Reply
  11. My favorite quote: Bitcoin is a "way to eradicate all lying by human beings" hahahahahahaha Bitcoin is one giant pump and dump scheme.

    Reply
  12. And yet how many think their pension is rock solid and untouchable. They are the ones that are going to really be in trouble.
    I know a lot of 50-somes that are paying the bills of their 25-35 year old adult children, including in many cases mortgage payments on homes they co-signed on the loans. taking on the debt of their children could be a super-storm of trouble if the economy slows and the housing prices fall.

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  13. It won't be just a recession; but a great depression. These socialist handouts to big companies can't last forever and the fact that they can drag the world down with them if the companies receiving the hand outs collapses, its time to start a new system; there's only so much capital to go around till it has an effect upon money held in the banks and there's a run of everyone closing their bank accounts and withdraw available capital before banks close for good. Inflation is alredy getting out of hand and that the cost of food and energy is excluded from calculating inflation as a whole is questionable. The housing market bubble has burst and states are suffering because housing prices are dropping and capital gains tax and other manners of the state getting money from housing sales is falling. Stores, buisnesses and companies are closing down and cutting back, that includes banks. Intrest rates cut worldwide; if things were great, federal reserve banks would not cut rates but increase them. Say goodbye to this current corrupt capitalist system. It's been in its death throes for quite some time and I for one can't wait to see the system fall.

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  14. On one hand; this is probably well-researched information. But there is an an enormous piece of danger acquiring, acquiring, acquiring this thesis and gathering confirmation bias towards "recession". And that is, simply, you get too damn bearish. So you buy puts, way out there. You sit smugly, thinking you know something that only a few believe or discern and once the masses REALLY come to understand where (we think) the economy is going, then you will be shown to be right.

    And the day it turns, you will be ensconced and married to your thesis and unwilling to give it up. Remember, the more evidence you gather and the more time and effort and study you invest in your bear thesis, the more stubbornly you will cling to it. 45 days later, your puts have lost 25-35%. And maybe the folks who bought the bottom or NEAR the bottom or PRETTY LATE to the bottom will be up 20%, or 7%, or maybe even FLAT or maybe even down 2-5%. But you, the smart guy, are down 20-40%. So you and your smarts are doing not just worse, but hellishly worse than the dumbest long who has the worst timing in the universe.

    I have seen this happen many times in my 20 year (which is not 50 year but is not zero) investing career and, leaning bearish myself most of the time, have bought many, many of those dead puts. This last Fed rate cut, many investors and pundits were expecting a .50 cut, which I thought (and yes, that's just my silly opinion) was completely ridiculous to expect. If the economy looks to turn weak, the Fed is going to cut, and cut again, until US interest rates match the rest of the world near zero. Now you and I would probably agree that the state of and the functionality of the economy when rates are zero is more or less a completely synthetic construct. But that is a useless discussion. When you invest in US markets, you are buying the management skill of the best damn companies on earth. You are buying the dovish hand of what promises to be an accommodating Fed. When it looks like a recession approaches, the bears (and I include myself) never seem to take into consideration all the hail Marys the Fed and the US Treasury will pull out and throw.

    I appreciate your research & presentation. I question whether there is a reward for coming to whatever conclusion you come to.

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  15. The recession never ended, unless your in the 1%. Most people are worse off today than in 2008. 83% of stocks are owned by the top 1%. A handful of people own more wealth than the bottom 50%. There are few winners and many losers. According to the Dini scale, wealth inequality in the U.S. is the worst in history by a long shot. The Fed is NOT a government agency. 95% of all money created is by private banks using fractional lending. This means they create money from nothing and backed by nothing. The interest can only come from the principal therefore, there is never enough money to pay off the debt plus interest. Governments control the people. Corporations control the government. Banks control the corporations. Banks own all the debt. Therefore, banks control the world.

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  16. Is it possible for constant talks about a looming recession be actually capable of starting a real recession, and how much of this is actually beong driven by the huge debt loads millenials bave to shoulder? Entire mkt seems to be driven by old boomer money.

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  17. I have new job and have been avoiding 40l1k..only real estate & gold..and really conservative Roth. at end of year..we may have an October surprise

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  18. You guys are intelligent! Nothing goes up forever…economic cycles have been and will forever be unavoidable..Peak-Contraction-Trough-Expansion…the good thing about a slowdown/recession is that it will weed out all the fakes ,,cons..and
    If all else fails the government will simply take your tax dollars and give it back to the very same companies that caused the recession 😅

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  19. Well…..I guess the J00Z will create the next 911 like they did in '01, but this time, it'll be for a full scale WWIII all based on their False Flag J00 lies!

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  20. Project fact is important for you all!
    Eleven years ago people's disposable income was higher than it is now.So don't believe anything is getting better
    What does the world think of Brexit, simple from the pound falling every day not much. It means if you had £1000 in the bank in 2016 it is only worth £800-850 depending on how it is changed. It means for all of us more expensive imports of fuel for our cars and homes, food and many other things . It means in the coming months you will be poorer . you may also have noticed your holiday has been dearer and if you used your credit card you may have an enormous bill in September to cope with as well.
    If you believe tearing up the complex connections of 40 years with the EU in trade and so many things won't affect your life quit a bit then you are not living in the real world.
    Of course some people are making a fortune out of the whole mess,. But that does not include you the ordinary man or woman, whose got quite hard times ahead as Autumn and Winter draws on. You will by then be trying to make ends meet with an ever diminishing family budget and a very uncertain future.Life is going to get tough for all of us

    If now you believe any of the rubbish the pro Brexiter politicians and others spout ,you will very soon find it was all lies and fantasies . It is sad you all have to learn the hard way ,but when a country is run by con men, charlatans and get rich quick merchants who couldn't care a toss about you and your problems . What can you expect. These people will have no sympathy when you are broke and don't know how you will pay your bills or when you are unsure about your job security. These rich Brexiters the Moggs the Farage and the Johnsons will be enjoying the fruits of their wealth . While you scrape by on less and less!. You will learn unfortunately eventually learn not to put your faith in these people. It will sadly be a hard lesson for all of us! The wonderful tales of Post Brexit Britain they all told you will become sour memories and you will feel cheated and desolate
    But remember my words! You may not then get caught a second time! The Bible is quite right when it says"Put not your trust in Princes"(politicians)

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  21. We 're already in a Recession and a Big Depression is coming! Two weeks ago, I had a Pilot of Shop Lights delivered and I was the first morning delivery and my lap of was the only freight on that 40 foot trailer!

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  22. Recession in USA would happen if you don’t vote for Trump. He is knows more about the economy than any other president since he has experience to know what policies helped businesses the most. He dealt with many recessions and seen what causes them. He seen warning signs of a recession and he has a plan for it, it seems. For him to mention about it knows that he seen what you’ve seen.

    Now I can’t explain China (because of Trump tariffs and Vietnam stealing their niche) or EU (IDK). However, I doubt a recession would happen in USA until at least 6-8 years.

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  23. We are going into a recession. – Raoul Paul in 2012
    We are going into a recession. – Raoul Paul in 2015
    We are going into a recession. – Raoul Paul in 2019

    See I was right! – Raoul Paul when recession inevitably happens

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  24. Bitcon is not a solution to anything. It's just parasites feeding on parasites and exchanges scraping fees for buying imaginary substance.

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  25. Good post…i think the next 10 to 15 years will be a rough ride in the housing and stock markets…we are in a bubble globally and everything that goes up, comes down eventually…its starting and will be a slow, painful grind back down…its going to be a messy 10, 15 years…get ready, get out of debt, be smart…it could get real ugly, and fast…Canada is not in good shape…its all a lie…the recession has begun.

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  26. His interpretation of those graphs was very innacurate. He was seying disaster in extremely conventionals graphs. It is not a surprise that this year has been worst than last year.

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  27. This is all interesting but in the united states, people learned from the 2008 crisis. Most of the average families now have savings and knew this recession was coming two years ago.

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  28. 2-10 Yield curve finally inverted. You should know its significance. "It's game over, man. Game over." Bill Paxton in the movie Aliens.

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  29. Some thought Trump would drain the swamp of corporatists keeping this debt ponzi-scheme going. He invited even worse ones in and drained his balls on our face instead.

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  30. Problem is this is all too obvious, and very Austrian, which is to say, wrong. "nobody could have predicted" … hmmm … Keynesians, run the shop.

    Run from gold pumps, this is nothing but a bear market rally, and it will head to sub-1100 (then buy physical)

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  31. This is bull..i constantly see people out spending in towns around me. Im always at casino's and they are packed on fridays and Saturdays defintly. Its hard to find parking spot on them days because casino's are packed. And the city i live in convenient stores got slot machines and people are always playing them games. And people infront of me at the store in line are buying $20 and $30 scratch lottery tickets. Hell….people got YouTube channels of the doing slot machines and scratching books of lotto tickets….People are buying books of lottery scratch offs $600 a pop. And sheetz is packed and flying jay's truck stops are packed. I see people spending constantly. What we need is a stimulus. Stimulate the economy buy giving social security members a few hundred extra bucks once a year twords December month like $300 extra . we need to stimulate the economy.

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  32. that's right, it is just an economic cycle, and is not absolutely created and caused by the private central banks. come on people, everything that happens in this world is basically caused, and is not happening "organically", with the sole intent of keeping the masses in subjugation. "The truth, Neo, is that you're a slave, and were born into bondage…."

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  33. I still don't really know if the Stock Market is going to crash or melt up in the next 12 months. If the market crashes where does all the money go? not bonds, not stocks, not commodities. Gold cannot take it all!

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  34. Well thanks boomers. You off-shored future generation’s jobs, got a reverse mortgage, spent social security, refuse to retire, and racked up debt. Car sales down? Lol really? Say it ain’t so. Home sales down? Say it ain’t so. The investors are happy when sales are up. They are also happy off shoring jobs and fucking over workers. You can’t get a raise anymore without switching jobs. And now the younger generations have no upward mobility and cannot afford your overpriced shit and the investors are worried? Really?

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  35. "And I think the opportunity to make a lot of money is coming up rapidly…"

    Is he just implying Gold and Bitcoin are the major ways to make money during a recession? Did I miss the segment on where he discusses how to "make a lot of money during a recession"?

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  36. Betting on bitcoins truth in the long run durring these times. Plus since its inception this is the first recession to actually prove it's worth from the previous recession it was conceived from. Also it's way more finite and tangible then gold in it's current form. It's easier to do business with bitcoin then it is with gold, especially look at Venezuela

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  37. you're too late already!
    this is also a far more complex question than is asked let alone answered as well.

    nice try tho!

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  38. Wonderful video… These are exactly the topics we've been talking about with clients over the last 3 yrs… Although they sounds smarter than me 😉

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  39. Recession has already started, none of the participants wear socks, probably a bad investment with socks, mistaken for stocks.

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  40. I enjoy listening to your sincere interest in understanding the business cycle. If you are not aware of the work of individuals like Michal Kalecki and Josef Steindl then I can almost guarantee a dividend if you simply took these gentlemen to the toilet in order to ensure exposure to their ideas at least once a day. Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism is a classic which would add conserable coherence to you own public thoughts on this subject.

    The choice is yours, but if you can read German and want secrets unlocked Tugan Baranovsky’s Studien zur Theorie und Geschichte der Handelskrisen in England is a lost source of considerable wisdom. There is a French translation, but unfortunately not into English.

    I enjoy listening to your thoughts and shall return to see how they evolve. But, they need more structure mate.

    Finally, I understand it is a technique employed by fellas in your world of looking for short-cuts but don’t think a secondary literature on these individuals is going to allow you to understand their ideas.

    Remember, treat your beliefs as conjectures and you will expose those prejudices that limit your understanding of what is the most difficult subject in ‘economics’.

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  41. So you think we should be in cash? … I feel gold will also fall … it always does… dont people market sell all to cash? thanks!

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  42. Bsv is the real bitcoin. Btc wont scale and breaks white paper to validate transactions off chain and then returned. That not Nakamoto consensus. Read for yourself.

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  43. What this presentation suggests is to buy gold, short the stock market and buy the vix index.This way all the people on the planet can live happily ever after in fear and unemployment since the goods will no more circulate around the planet and the great companies will produce less for the poor. On the other hand the wealth will be distributed (!!!!) instead of now that is concentrated, as some commentator in this video quoted. I am surprised for all the thumbs up hits for one more golden wrap doom video.

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  44. Fantastic Raoul.
    Gold. Bitcoin and holding USD for short-mid term is the answer to this slowdown and possible recession. As we go into negative interest rates we'll really want Gold and bitcoin
    See my channel too I'm going to discuss this

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  45. I have been preparing for recession two years after the last recession ended, which was very bad,but I do not have any debt !

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  46. The economy has been almost the exact image of 2007 and 2008. People did not learn anything before as they are going into debt to pay for houses that are hugely overpriced. As soon as this recession hits we will see peoples home values drop considerably and be worth so much less than the amount of the mortgage they signed, They will dump the property and we will see this cycle all over again!

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  47. Global stock market looks like it died today. There's been signs of this happening and now it's happening. Good work mate.
    If it keeps dropping there could be some big war coming with it?

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